Analysis of the Current Situation of China's Forging Industry in 2025

1、 Production and market pattern

Total production and global status:

China's forging production has been ranked first in the world for several consecutive years, with production recovering to 13.708 million tons in 2023 and expected to maintain stable growth in 2025. Automotive forging remains the core driving force.

China accounts for nearly 40% of the global forging production, leading the global supply chain.

Note the output of segmented fields:

Automotive forgings account for over 60% of the total, with a production of 5.98 million tons in 2021. By 2025, driven by the demand for new energy vehicles, the growth rate will be significant.

Aviation forgings: The market size is growing rapidly, reaching 18.5 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 140 billion yuan in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5% -6%.

Application field distribution:

Automobile, aerospace, and engineering machinery are the three core fields. Among them, the demand for high-temperature alloys and titanium alloy forgings in the aerospace industry has surged, but the technology concentration of domestic enterprises is relatively low, and only a few enterprises have the production capacity for high-end products.

Technical upgrade direction:

The trend towards large-scale, automated, and intelligent equipment is evident, driving an increase in the proportion of high-end products such as precision ring forgings.

The technical requirements for aviation forgings are high, involving interdisciplinary technology integration. Domestic enterprises still lag behind international standards by 1-2 levels in terms of raw material utilization rate (only 10% -15%) and precision forming technology.

3、 Industry operation and competitive situation

Current situation of enterprise operation:

The industry's revenue continues to grow, but profits fluctuate greatly. Benefiting from the recovery of downstream demand and profit growth in 2020-2021; In 2025, the high-end market (such as aviation forgings) will have higher profit margins, but competition in the mid to low end market will intensify.

The proportion of raw material costs is as high as 80%, and the increase in energy and labor costs further squeezes profits.

Analysis of Future Development Trends in China's Forging Industry

1、 Intelligent and automated upgrades

Equipment intelligence: Forging equipment is accelerating its transformation towards CNC and intelligence, and precision ring forgings and integrated die-casting processes (such as 12000 ton die-casting machines) are gradually becoming popular, promoting production efficiency and product quality improvement.

Process optimization: Using AI algorithms to optimize forging parameters, improve material utilization (currently only 10% -15% for large forgings), and reduce energy consumption and production costs.

2、 Expansion of high-end material applications

Growth in demand for lightweight alloys: New energy vehicles are driving the demand for lightweight aluminum and magnesium alloy forgings, such as Fityou forging robot for forging automaticPrecision Forging Project"

Aviation special materials: High temperature alloys and titanium alloy forgings have seen a significant increase in their application in domestic large aircraft and aviation engines. The market size of aviation forgings is expected to exceed 140 billion yuan by 2025.

Market structure optimization and concentration enhancement

Accelerated industry integration: Leading companies such asFityou robot and Parker New Materials have expanded their production capacity through technological upgrades, with the top ten companies having a market share of over80%. The "internal competition" in the mid to low end market has forced the industry to reshuffle.

High end market dominance: High value-added fields such as aviation and new energy vehicles have become profit cores, with a compound growth rate of 5% -6% for aviation forgings by 2025, far higher than traditional fields.

6、 Release of demand in emerging application fields

New energy vehicle drive: Automotive forgings account for over 60%, and the trend towards electrification is driving an increase in demand for lightweight components such as shock absorbers and transmission gears.